Forecasting Tools

     When it comes to forecasting different elements of the weather, there are numerous tools at a meteorologists disposal to assist in this task.  One of the easiest and most reliable tools is to look at upstream weather stations and notice what the forecasters are seeing, you can then use extrapolation to help aid your forecast.  According to the book Climate and Weather "Weather prediction, as has been said already, is based on recording the atmospheric conditions over large areas and ideally over a whole hemisphere at a particular moment. If we have this information we can then estimate the speed and direction in which bad weather areas will move" (Flohn 148).  Another tool that is used with a high degree of accuracy are forecast models.  In Amy J Stevermer’s book Recent Advances and Issues in Meteorology, “Forecast models have been continually updated and improved.  As both computer power and meteorologists’ level of understanding increase, there has been a large push to increase the accuracy of long range forecasts” (Stevermer 9).  Such forecast models as the Mid Range Forecast (MRF), Nested Grid Model (NGM), and Aviation models are three of the more reliable sources a meteorologist can use to assist in forecasting.  A forecast model must first be verified if it can be used, in order to do that the model must be compared to current weather. In my experience, a six hour run is a good range to determine if the model is handling a system well, if so you can use the forecasted run as a tool in compiling information for an accurate forecast.

Works Cited

Flohn, Hermann. Climate and Weather. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969. 

Stevermer, Amy J. Recent Advances and Issues in Meteorology. Westport, Conn: Oryx Press, 2002.