According to the National Weather Service mission statement, “The National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrological, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy” (NWS Mission Statement). Without agencies like the NWS or the forecasters throughout this country, there would be countless incidents and trillions of dollars in damage, if the public weren’t prepared for the information that is provided. Forecasting the weather is a mix between art and science, it takes a keen eye with years of experience, to be able to use the proper tools and techniques to accurately forecast upcoming weather events. It is a career that I have had for the past ten years and one that I have had a great sense of reward in. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) administrator, Dr Jane Lubchenco put it best when she said “From daily weather forecasts, severe storm warnings and climate monitoring to fisheries management, coastal restoration and supporting marine commerce, NOAA’s products and services support economic vitality and affect more than one-third of America’s gross domestic product” (Welcome to NOAA). There are many intricacies to producing a proper weather forecast. This has been a brief overview of a few tools at the disposal of a meteorologist. With the proper interpretation of the data available, a meteorologist can make a skilled forecast that can be depended on by the members of the community.
Works Cited
Taylor, Anthony. Personal library.
National Weather Service. “National Weather Service Mission Statement.” www.weather.gov.
11 August, 2011. <http://www.weather.gov/mission.php>
Lubchenco, Jane. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “Welcome to NOAA.” www.noaa.gov. 11 August, 2011. <http://www.noaa.gov/about-noaa.html>
Friday, August 12, 2011
Forecasting Tools
When it comes to forecasting different elements of the weather, there are numerous tools at a meteorologists disposal to assist in this task. One of the easiest and most reliable tools is to look at upstream weather stations and notice what the forecasters are seeing, you can then use extrapolation to help aid your forecast. According to the book Climate and Weather "Weather prediction, as has been said already, is based on recording the atmospheric conditions over large areas and ideally over a whole hemisphere at a particular moment. If we have this information we can then estimate the speed and direction in which bad weather areas will move" (Flohn 148). Another tool that is used with a high degree of accuracy are forecast models. In Amy J Stevermer’s book Recent Advances and Issues in Meteorology, “Forecast models have been continually updated and improved. As both computer power and meteorologists’ level of understanding increase, there has been a large push to increase the accuracy of long range forecasts” (Stevermer 9). Such forecast models as the Mid Range Forecast (MRF), Nested Grid Model (NGM), and Aviation models are three of the more reliable sources a meteorologist can use to assist in forecasting. A forecast model must first be verified if it can be used, in order to do that the model must be compared to current weather. In my experience, a six hour run is a good range to determine if the model is handling a system well, if so you can use the forecasted run as a tool in compiling information for an accurate forecast.
Works Cited
Works Cited
Flohn, Hermann. Climate and Weather. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969.
Stevermer, Amy J. Recent Advances and Issues in Meteorology. Westport, Conn: Oryx Press, 2002.
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