Conclusion

    According to the National Weather Service mission statement, “The National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrological, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy” (NWS Mission Statement).  Without agencies like the NWS or the forecasters throughout this country, there would be countless incidents and trillions of dollars in damage, if the public weren’t prepared for the information that is provided.  Forecasting the weather is a mix between art and science, it takes a keen eye with years of experience, to be able to use the proper tools and techniques to accurately forecast upcoming weather events.  It is a career that I have had for the past ten years and one that I have had a great sense of reward in.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) administrator, Dr Jane Lubchenco put it best when she said “From daily weather forecasts, severe storm warnings and climate monitoring to fisheries management, coastal restoration and supporting marine commerce, NOAA’s products and services support economic vitality and affect more than one-third of America’s gross domestic product” (Welcome to NOAA).  There are many intricacies to producing a proper weather forecast.  This has been a brief overview of a few tools at the disposal of a meteorologist. With the proper interpretation of the data available, a meteorologist can make a skilled forecast that can be depended on by the members of the community.

Works Cited

Taylor, Anthony. Personal library.

National Weather Service. “National Weather Service Mission Statement.” www.weather.gov.
    11 August, 2011. <http://www.weather.gov/mission.php>

Lubchenco, Jane. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “Welcome to NOAA.”     www.noaa.gov. 11 August, 2011. <http://www.noaa.gov/about-noaa.html>

Forecasting Tools

     When it comes to forecasting different elements of the weather, there are numerous tools at a meteorologists disposal to assist in this task.  One of the easiest and most reliable tools is to look at upstream weather stations and notice what the forecasters are seeing, you can then use extrapolation to help aid your forecast.  According to the book Climate and Weather "Weather prediction, as has been said already, is based on recording the atmospheric conditions over large areas and ideally over a whole hemisphere at a particular moment. If we have this information we can then estimate the speed and direction in which bad weather areas will move" (Flohn 148).  Another tool that is used with a high degree of accuracy are forecast models.  In Amy J Stevermer’s book Recent Advances and Issues in Meteorology, “Forecast models have been continually updated and improved.  As both computer power and meteorologists’ level of understanding increase, there has been a large push to increase the accuracy of long range forecasts” (Stevermer 9).  Such forecast models as the Mid Range Forecast (MRF), Nested Grid Model (NGM), and Aviation models are three of the more reliable sources a meteorologist can use to assist in forecasting.  A forecast model must first be verified if it can be used, in order to do that the model must be compared to current weather. In my experience, a six hour run is a good range to determine if the model is handling a system well, if so you can use the forecasted run as a tool in compiling information for an accurate forecast.

Works Cited

Flohn, Hermann. Climate and Weather. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969. 

Stevermer, Amy J. Recent Advances and Issues in Meteorology. Westport, Conn: Oryx Press, 2002.

Temperature

       When it comes to forecasting, temperature is the element that effects people the most, and is sometimes one of the easiest to inaccurately forecast.  For years now I’ve been using a method to forecast the daily high temperature with an accuracy rating of nearly 90%.  In order to understand this method I will first need to familiarize you with a few numerical forecast models.  Numerical forecast models are used to help give evidence and provide meteorological support to a forecast.  Just like writing a paper for a class, or a policeman performing an investigation, you want to be able to provide your customer with evidentiary proof that the information you are providing them is accurate.  One of the more accurate forecast models that I’ve discovered is the National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model or MM5.  The MM5 has been used to supplement weather forecasts for years with a high degree of accuracy.  Research studies, such as the “Objective Bias Correction for improved Skill in Forecasting Diurnal Cycles of Temperature over Multiple Locations” (Weather & Forecasting) have used the MM5 to confirm the accuracy of daily temperature forecasting and help substantiate the model as an accurate way to supplement daily forecasts.  Within a numerical model forecast, a user will be able to find data that will provide them with a solid starting point from which to forecast a high temperature.  However, with weather, there are always more than one variable(s) that can allow for signifiant errors in forecasting, if overlooked.  Another highly used model is the Florida State University (FSU) Global Atmospheric Model.  In the March 2010 a study titled “Improving Multimodel Forecasts of the Vertical Distribution of Heating” (Journal of CLimate) concluded that over a 17 day period that the FSU model had a few minor errors but overall, was able to calculate good baseline numbers for a general forecast.  Now that you have two good sources of information to refer to, you can now look at the more obvious information to conclude your temperature forecast. I always use the previous days high temperature along with the variations in atmospheric pressure.  If there has been a significant drop in atmospheric pressure you always certainly expect the temperature to be lower, and the opposite holds true with increases in pressure. Another element that will effect your daily high temperature is wind, wind can advect heat from another location but it can also bring a cooling element. Direction and upstream terrain is always something to consider when looking at wind as a variable in temperature forecasting.  Once you have eliminated all of the variables you are now ready to forecast your high temperature.  Seems simple, but most would have no idea where to begin and this is one of the reasons I enjoy meteorology.
      



Works Cited

Taylor, Anthony. Personal library.

Weather & Forecasting. February 2011. Vol. 26 Issue 1. Pg 26-43.

Journal of Climate. March 2010. Vol. 23 Issue 5. Pg 1079-1094.

Introduction

I've chosen the topic of weather forecast techniques for this blog assignment because I feel like everyone is effected by the weather, yet understanding it is something that has slipped through the grasp of most. As a meteorologist for the past ten years I feel that this will be a great place for me to share some of the knowledge that I have gained in my time in this field of study. Not only that, but it will serve as a place I myself can visit from time to time to refresh my memories and remain sharp when it comes to basic tasks.
As I mentioned, I have been a meteorologist for the past ten years. I joined the Air Force in February 2001 and received my formal training at Keesler Air Force Base in Mississippi and at Travis Air Force Base in California. Over the years I've had the great privilege of working with some fantastic meteorologists who have shared many techniques and much knowledge on how to accurately forecast the weather. I just hope that I can convey the information that they bestowed upon me with the same confidence and precision that they possessed when they trusted me with their wisdom.