When it comes to forecasting, temperature is the element that effects people the most, and is sometimes one of the easiest to inaccurately forecast. For years now I’ve been using a method to forecast the daily high temperature with an accuracy rating of nearly 90%. In order to understand this method I will first need to familiarize you with a few numerical forecast models. Numerical forecast models are used to help give evidence and provide meteorological support to a forecast. Just like writing a paper for a class, or a policeman performing an investigation, you want to be able to provide your customer with evidentiary proof that the information you are providing them is accurate. One of the more accurate forecast models that I’ve discovered is the National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model or MM5. The MM5 has been used to supplement weather forecasts for years with a high degree of accuracy. Research studies, such as the “Objective Bias Correction for improved Skill in Forecasting Diurnal Cycles of Temperature over Multiple Locations” (Weather & Forecasting) have used the MM5 to confirm the accuracy of daily temperature forecasting and help substantiate the model as an accurate way to supplement daily forecasts. Within a numerical model forecast, a user will be able to find data that will provide them with a solid starting point from which to forecast a high temperature. However, with weather, there are always more than one variable(s) that can allow for signifiant errors in forecasting, if overlooked. Another highly used model is the Florida State University (FSU) Global Atmospheric Model. In the March 2010 a study titled “Improving Multimodel Forecasts of the Vertical Distribution of Heating” (Journal of CLimate) concluded that over a 17 day period that the FSU model had a few minor errors but overall, was able to calculate good baseline numbers for a general forecast. Now that you have two good sources of information to refer to, you can now look at the more obvious information to conclude your temperature forecast. I always use the previous days high temperature along with the variations in atmospheric pressure. If there has been a significant drop in atmospheric pressure you always certainly expect the temperature to be lower, and the opposite holds true with increases in pressure. Another element that will effect your daily high temperature is wind, wind can advect heat from another location but it can also bring a cooling element. Direction and upstream terrain is always something to consider when looking at wind as a variable in temperature forecasting. Once you have eliminated all of the variables you are now ready to forecast your high temperature. Seems simple, but most would have no idea where to begin and this is one of the reasons I enjoy meteorology.
Works Cited
Taylor, Anthony. Personal library.
Weather & Forecasting. February 2011. Vol. 26 Issue 1. Pg 26-43.
Journal of Climate. March 2010. Vol. 23 Issue 5. Pg 1079-1094.
